The Bigger fool game

The bigger fool game has come to an end. The party has stopped, but the music has just begun for those who have been caught in this bigger fool game. Brokerage houses, financial engineers and more than anything else the real estate players have all been caught on the wrong foot. They are all loaded with debt on their balance sheets, and with partly paid assets which will fetch 20 paisa to a dollar.

The euphoria of land bank valuations mean, that when the double bubble of stocks and real estate burst all the investors in this sector were left and high and dry. Stocks losing more than 95% from their peaks. The real estate bell weathers Unitech and DLF which painted the growth and development story have been equally badly hit.

Even though it is going to be incredibly painful, we sincerely hope that the real estate players get into a deleveraging mode sooner rather than later. Few players have started making the right noise, with sales of non core assets, raising capital through whatever sources they can, others are still playing the blame game. Interest rates shot up, requesting bail out packages, bank loans and the moon from the government. They are bargaining with the government for sops and cheaper interest rates against dropping real estate prices!! Incredulous, do they really have a choice is what baffles me?

If they don’t sell, they go belly up, banks will put pressures, investors will put pressure, and the sahukaars in real estate lending business will gobble them, if they don’t do that. So for god sake stop calling the bluff, and do what you anyways you need to do. You are not doing the country, FM or anyone favor by reducing prices of property, honestly you guys have no choice and no holding power either. For the first time I see, the otherwise fragmented and dog eat dog industry of real estate bargaining in a joint fashion with the Government. I hope Mr. Chidambaram calls the bluff, tells them, tighter lending norms, pay for your own excesses, and if you don’t wish to cut prices, suit yourself, you are the only ones who will left holding the baby. Make no mistake those who cut prices first will be there standing last. There are no ivory towers, and there is no place to hide.

Housing loan at 7% when Fixed deposit rates are 11%??? Please spare us we can live without another stupid bailout, where tax payers are whipped, financial system put to danger, to support unscrupulous real estate players. I know Mr. Chidambaram is wise enough to know what is going on, but I hope he does not fall to the pressure of elections, showing cheaper homes as a victory of old slogan of roti kapda aur makaan, and gives stupid concessions to these guys.

Another sector where a similar game is being played is the airlines sector, where the monopolistic premium domestic airline Companies have been holding the government to ransom, and getting ATF prices cut by the aviation minister, where surprisingly the retail prices of petrol diesel are left unchanged. Today ATF is cheaper than petrol on per litre basis, so much for a welfare state. The public at large are subsidizing people who fly. It happens only in India. In spite of all this air fares for the premium airlines have only headed north, and not to forget the occupancy south. With an understanding between the two leading private airlines Company on fares, there is very little choice in the premium segment for the corporate flyer, so they were hoping this will boost the traffic. Alas! Old India and smart India comes to the fore, the occupancy heads further south, with even Corporate travelers likes us more than willing and happy to travel through low cost carriers which have been proactive in reducing prices and increasing the occupancy.

If the leading airlines, don’t stop playing this bluff with the government for more sops, excise cuts and holding those things to ransom to reduce prices, and the government calls bluff, the airlines will bleed themselves to death. In India, if you have to survive you have to accept the market realities and reduce fares. Period. No pacts, no understandings will work sir, yes, unless of course our illustrious politicians are willing to bend backwards to accommodate this heresy of airlines. Gentlemen are premium airlines, please keep the fares up, someone is going to get to buy your fleet at close to peanuts.

Its always fun to see the music stop in this bigger fool game. Now we are having another round in all countries, where people are predicting doomsday scenario. As things become cheaper, the risk perception of over-payment instead of becoming lower increases beats me. I know there is a systemic change ahead that we see coming, and even at current levels I will be afraid of investing in US markets, where the pain is going to be huge and to an extent unsustainable.

I will not be surprised if Dow falls another 50-60% from here. (for posterity sake, Dow is at 7500 today, and I am not ruling a possibility of Dow going below 4000). Why I say so? One of the biggest frauds of all time the US Dollar is threatened, the country which was consuming everything produced all over the world and paying off by printing currency, may not be able to do so anymore. We all know what happens when a currency collapse. What happened to Rouble and then to Russia which marked the end of cold war. I think we are back to becoming a multipolar world, where China will become extremely important pole and India will get more important than what it has been. European Union will become important too. Public+private debt to GDP ratio of 350%, rising unemployment, closing manufacturing capacities, textiles, airlines, now automobile, US in for real rough weather. In real terms, honestly I think US economy will make a mockery of these predictions of recession of 1-2%, the degrowth over the next 3-4 years could be as high as 15-20% of the GDP.

The Leadership Challenge

Would like to wish Mr. Obama all the best for what is going to be the most difficult time to be American President since time immemorial, couple that with hostile global climate, dependency on outsiders for oil, limited ability to fund your defence spends, in times of crisis, a crumbling financial institution. Really the only light at the end of the dark long tunnel for US is that of an oncoming train. Leadership will be extremely important in this era for US. We pray that adverse situation does not unleash the hawk in American President and they are patient and virtuous enough to weather the tough times ahead without looking at war as tools to assimilate resources.

The world also needs leadership in addressing environmental issues, and to address the depletion of energy resources and to keep in check the monster of global warming to drown precious land and coastal areas. Clean energy is also need to be tapped and developed for better health, more self dependence and for the sake of our great grand children. Yeah, I am an optimist, they will be born and we will not have a doomsday before that.

The leadership challenge is not only for US, where the challenge is managing its citizens, its hopes, its fears, and to tide through the painful times, by making right sacrifices, and by finding ways to reinvent their positioning for the economy. The challenge for China and also to an extent India is much greater. China, India and European Union need to take the responsibility of world leaders with compassion, objectivity and fairness. They need to be assertive to do away with inefficiencies with consideration that the troubled landing of US economy has a human face to it.

US on the other hand will need to be made more responsible, will have to undertake sacrifices and should be given surplus budget targets for every year, absorbing as much dollars as they can from the world economy while sacrificing its consumption growth. We are in bad times anyways and surely cant afford another bubble in US economy, I am not sure US will be able to afford this one either. The greed of cornering all resources, crude, mines, commodities have beggared them. As they mother earth has enough in it for everyone’s need but not for their greed.

Another challenge for the world leaders will be a spiritual one, where the virtues of goodness, honesty, sacrifice will have to be extolled once again, against the creed of greed. We will need to be compassionate towards the excesses of US too.

We pray that the world gets strong, compassionate and foresighted leaders, who rise above their national interests to embrace the world and become world leaders. Who stand up and say, they care for the starving children in Africa, who bother about the alienation of the Muslim world, who take measures to address the daily loss of flora and fauna, who imbibe and extol virtues of goodness, mutual respect, sanitation, equality and are not overtly swayed by greed, excesses of power and corruption of mind. I pray one day I will be one of them.

This world deserves much better, we deserve much better. Lets take a pledge, when we die we will leave the world better than what it is today.

When Markets Tank

There is music in stock market panic. There is pleasure in seeing gloomy faces of men once famous and rich by putting more and more money and less and less time in stock market investments. Making money, after all has never been easy, and the moment it starts appearing too easy there is something wrong about it. As they used to say in 2007, the only way you cannot make money on stock market is if it is closed.

Today, there are different scenes, people are looking for recluse in FMPs, and stocks aren’t as sexy as they used to be. The roving queries for the next big tips have started getting muted. But they haven’t jumped the ship yet. One look at the money inflow from Mutual Funds suggests, there is fresh inflow every month, and most of the liquidity being taken away is essentially FII money. People are skeptical, people are scared, but they haven’t jumped ship yet.

Tops and Bottoms

Signs of markets bottoming out are as visible to the discerning eye as the signs of markets topping out. The markets top when you cant track the number of public issues hitting the markets, and their valuation being done on anything else but earnings. When you start hearing about innovative valuation methodologies like Price/Imagination ratio, eyeballs, footfalls, landbanks, embedded valuations, the next big story, its not the same this time, that’s the time to get scared. When everyone asks for tips, is the time to be cautious, and when everyone starts talking about the multi-baggers they made and start offering you advice that is the time to run.

Similarly, when AUMs start decreasing, dividend yields for growing Companies start exceeding the interest rates, people start talking about cash bargains and the stellars of the bull run starts falling like nine pins that is the time to get into it. America has started to see those signs, where the architects of innovative structures like sub-prime securities being sold multiple times over, the bankers have started going bankrupt and housing is in doldrums. In India, the real estate stocks have seen a tumble, but my sense is, till the time we see panic selling in the real estate markets couples with a few takeovers, few guys going virtually bankrupt, and the markets would not have bottomed out. The effect of Chinese recession is yet to seep in, the hefty mutual fund redemptions are yet to kick in, that is the time markets are going to get really sexy.

The taste of Saliva and the lump in my throat

Just the taste of Saliva, when you think of such a market scenario, makes my eyes glow, makes my heart warm, I can’t wait for the thud, can’t wait for the opportunities to buy things at price of dirt. I have been investing, but I am also in cash. Now that the high tide is over, the panic stricken brokers, the high-flying bankers, the insightful analysts all stand naked today in front of the world. People have lost their lives fortunes; few will lose their houses too in very new future. I empathize and understand their pain, but like in life so in markets, its not the most intelligent, it’s not the smartest, it is always the person with the strongest character who is standing the last. Only those whose long term resolve and character are stronger than bouts of fear and greed will survive. For all my love for the stock market, I hope I read this post in every market excess to remind myself of my long term resolve and discipline in investing. I have made my mistakes, I have even repeated my mistakes, but I sincerely hope I will learn from each of them. For everyone else and for myself too the war is not over, far from it, (actually it is never over) just remember whenever you loose a bet “don’t lose the lesson”.

Let your Blood Boil

“We can change history but we can’t change Geography”- Atal Behari Vajpayee

Unfortunately, the current lots of politicians are doing just the opposite; they are changing geography and repeating the history of being meek. The image of India as a soft state and a soft target keeps getting more firmly etched, with repeated attacks at India’s major cities, killing innocent people with impunity. What is even more disturbing is the intelligentsia of the country falling prey to years of violence, terror induced by our neighbor in Kashmir, advocating creation of another unfriendly neighbor called Kashmir.

With neighbors, like Pakistan, Kashmir, Bangladesh and China on all sides of the border, indulging in guerilla warfare, inducing terror hit and run tactics and the ever increasing weaponry capability and arsenal is making India’s security fears increase by the day. The Central Government’s meek response to each such attack or for the internal terror forces like the naxalites who now have footprints over 170 out of 602 districts of the country. The authorities just refuse to get out of their slumber.

I still remember the terror struck faces of parliamentarians on that ill fated 13th December, 2001 attack. Ill fated for two counts, the brave soldiers of our security forces lost lives, and second none of the parliamentarians did. Honestly, those are the true faces of the rulers of the country, meek, and terror struck for their own security, but indifferent to loss of lives of a billion respected citizens of this country.

The POTA was repealed, giving further impunity to the terrorist forces. I know there will be plenty of human rights activists and international experts baying for your blood, but the only way to stem the rot is the way we did it in Punjab. Lets get the military organized, lets get the intelligence centralized and coordinated, lets fix responsibilities, lets do the combing of our own territory, and sanitize it for once and for all, lets suffocate them financially, and lets cut their regular supply of ration. There will be excesses, but the price needs to be paid, for years of negligence, for decades of fear and for submitting to their evil designs time and again.

Let Kargil be not forgotten, but even more important is to remember, Mumbai trains, tbe blasts in 1992, the serial blasts in Bangalore, in Jaipur, in Ahmedabad, the designs in Surat, the Naxalite operations in Bihar, UP, Chhattisgarh, M.P, West Bengal, the plight of the north eastern states, and yes Kashmir too. Remember the mutilation of our BSF soldiers, being returned to us like hanging goats up for the flame. Let your blood boil. Lets resolve, that we will leave behind a much more peaceful and secure India for our future generation, not the one which is threatened by all sides by unfriendly neighbors and from enemy within.

Our neighbors will not get any better, (may be with an exception of China) Pakistan and Bangladesh will continue to be the pests they are, but if we refuse to be meek, and hand it down to them with our preparedness, alertness, they will think a hundred times.

We are the Champions!!!

I've paid my dues
Time after time
I've done my sentence
But committed no crime
And bad mistakes
I've made a few
I've had my share of sand kicked in my face
But I've come through

We are the champions - my friends
And we'll keep on fighting - till the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for losers
'Cause we are the champions - of the world

I've taken my bows
And my curtain calls
You brought me fame and fortune and everything that goes with it
I thank you all

But it's been no bed of roses
No pleasure cruise
I consider it a challenge before the whole human race
And I ain't gonna lose

We are the champions - my friends
And we'll keep on fighting - till the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for losers
'Cause we are the champions - of the world
- Queen

A tribute to the men in blue and all those who stood by them through the tough times

एक दिन मेरी जिन्दगी और लंबी हो गई

एक दिन मेरी जिन्दगी और लंबी हो गई,
जाने क्या थी चाहत जो जिन्दगी भी अदनी हो गई,
शुरुआत तो नेक थी, पर जाने कब नियत खोटी हो गई,
कुछ और, कुछ और कि चाहत में इंसानियत छोटी हो गई,
एक दिन मेरी जिन्दगी और लंबी हो गयी!

जाने यह मन क्यों हर मोड़ पर भटकता है,
बंद, टूटे जर्जर रास्तों पे भी दिल मचलता है,
क्या पता था कि जिन्दगी का एक स्याह रुप है,
सफ़र में धुंधली छांह है तो आगे कड़ी धुप है,
जाने किसकी तलाश में यह सफ़र आज और लंबी हो गई!

शायद यह प्रियजनों कि दुआओं का असर था,
या शायद, इस जिन्दगी कि खूबसूरती से मैं बेसब्र था,
कभी थे रंग, आरजू, तमन्नाएँ हमारी आंखों से जिंदा,
पर क्यों आज हर खुशियों को यह आँखें करती हैं शर्मिंदा,
शायद, आज इस सन्नाटे कि उमर उन खुशियों से लंबी हो गई!

एक दिन मेरी जिन्दगी और लंबी हो गयी!

Human Resource Management - Professionals or Parasites

The good part of being a MBA from a premier institute is that you always have decent and multiple options to change jobs, the bad part is we tend to avail it more often that probably we like to, and the worst part is that you have to deal with people who “specialise” in this field called Human Resource Management.

I for one have always been at a loss of reason to justify professionals in these field, except for those doing clerical jobs like payroll processing, getting joining formalities done and typing out appointment, termination letter etc. The more organizations I change and the more organizations I meet, I get more and more convinced of redundancy senior personnel in HR. The best HR person is someone who keeps his focus on systems and systems alone, and keeps away from so-called core HR jobs. I guess its time for some objective reasoning:

Reason 1 – Who does HR in a b-school? Invariably the people taking up HR in a b-school are those, who are not smart enough to understand Finance or IT and are too laidback to meet the challenges that Marketing (Read Sales) poses. They want a cushy comfortable time in the b-school, to generally have a ball of a time in the b-school and cushy comfortable no-nonsense job thereafter. So basically the very pool that HR draws from is full of lazy incompetent people.

Reason 2 – What exactly do they do? They possess absolutely no skill, no specialisation, from entry level to senior most, what they do is just talk, and talk nonsense. Let’s look at their sub-functions and what exactly they are supposed to do:

• Recruitment – How would they interview or screen a candidate, when they anyway don’t understand the requirements of the business and skill sets.
• Training – this is the funniest, they don’t know jackshit themselves, and what will they train you on. If someone else has to come to train someone else, your role to the best of my knowledge is limited to admin and logistics work. And when you are not meeting resources on a regular basis, don’t understand business, how do high sounding things like “assessment of skill gaps” and stuff happens. Beats me. Completely
• Compensation Management – What happens, if you give less competent people, who are supposedly “as educated” as other resources, the responsibility to decide compensation and career growth of other resources who are in the line function and obviously HR people are totally incompetent to judge that. As a result they tend to consider Human resource as a commodity, try to short-change their own prospective and incumbent employees, create discomfort and in many cases force good resources to leave. And what they do show to the management for their efforts, the pennies they save on salary, and what does go unaccounted is pounds they loose on training and creating another resource. Quiet a sorry state of affairs it is.
• HR Systems – I think this is the only area they can really contribute, but unfortunately most lack competency to correct and set that up. ICICI is one exception, where they have managed to put up brilliant systems in place, so that inspite of lower salaries compared to multinational banks, high attrition rates and general talent crunch, they have been able to meet their recruitment targets, retain people at higher levels and grow at a heady rate. Unfortunately, most other organisations have failed there. Anyways a systems guy is better equipped to take care of that.

Reason 3 – What habits they inculcate – When line people slog and work to build their skills competencies and network which are critical to their performance, HR people are a pampered lot, who are pampered by various institutes, who are pampered by prospective candidates, and also candidates who finally get recruited. Then they get to arrange fancy training programmes at fancy locations and party when there when line people are getting trained. Man am I jealous… I guess a wee bit, but would still prefer not being there.

Reason 4 – Empty mind is a devil’s workshop – What happens to people who do not have anything productive to do and are supposed to sit on a chair all day long. Well mind doesn’t stop. So their innovative mind starts working overtime to find ways and means to make their presence felt in the organization. So then they start generating a slew of useless policies like, people who lunch for more than half an hour will be penalised, attendance should be monitored through bio-metrics. Lets start having training sessions on Saturdays to spoil people’s weekends, all off-sites and other activities should be on weekends to maximise the working hours. Bonuses should be delayed and be paid in instalments, so that the Company can save the bonus when people leave, the notice period should be increased to 3 months to make the relieving painful, the list could be endless. The problem is, all this creates a bad brand value for the organization, and employers start becoming vary of organizations like these. Result – over a period of time the Companies have to pay more to attract talent, and then they struggle to give the required growth, people quit, then same cycle repeats. This is probably the single most reason why I would never have a HR “professional” in my Company when I start one. Only HR clerks would be good enough for me. Anyways HR is too serious a business to be left to HR “professionals”.

I could have taken this opportunity to share my trysts with HR, and had initially thought so, but then realised that the pandemic is of much larger proportion and I would be doing criminal injustice to this Herculean problem, if I limited it to my own experiences. But would surely love to listen to yours…

Then life begins again….

When hatred takes over and devours peace,
When the specter, is bombed and human flesh strewn into pieces,
When robbed are the cadaver, and the saint fleeces,
But when heart feels the unbearable wrenching pain, then life begins again

When the present is infested and the ghosts of past exorcise,
When tools wear off and your dreams for the future are met with despise,
When efforts go wasted and demons of self-doubt rise,
But when, still in the heart, Hope doth remain, then life begins again

When the fear of tomorrow possesses you and the night is longer than day,
When naysayers surround you but no one shows the way,
When for every omission, every commission, life asks for a hefty pay,
But when, you muster courage to build sand castles in rain, then life begins again.

When the sinews are tired, and the muscles refuse to obey,
When old age takes away the joie de vivre,
When you see your own offsprings in the shades of grey,
When you die, still pining to live again, that is when, that is when life begins again

Destiny – Thou art not destined

Destiny thou art not destined, I shall conjure thee in my mind, with my heart.

There is something about destiny which is like women, It likes to be challenged, but the moment you start running after it, It plays hard to get. It wants you to be sincere, it wants you to be devoted, it wants you to be yours, but yet it wants you to be patient chasing it. The day you start monkeying around about your dreams, become impatient, the more elusive it gets. Destiny has a time for everything. But, when destiny wants you to be strong and patient with it, yet nonchalance is not acceptable, you have to keep flirting it from a distance till it actually caves in.

It asks not only for your heart and soul but also for your mind. But the most important thing is to make decisions of heart through heart and decisions of mind through mind. That is where education comes in the way. So often we dream, and make our dreams out master, so often we think, and make thoughts our aim (somewhat borrowed from “if”) that we stop feeling what we feel. That is what education does to you.

Something here reminds me of the Tsunami which struck our shores not too long, inflicting heart wrenching damage and pain to the inhabitants. But post facto it surprised quiet a few of us that there was hardly any loss of life for animals and livestock in the area. People told stories, of their dogs barking all day long, livestock walking up to places of height and standing and staring at all the damage that happened before it. The truth is they saw what the most intelligent creation of god did not. They saw future, they saw travesty, they saw the wave before any of us did, or before any sophisticated satellite cameras of the world captured it to issue a warning. I guess, in times like these, u feel the woeful inadequacy of the great human mind even compared to the so called ‘lesser’ creations of God.

I guess, when they say, destiny comes to those who don’t loose heart, they mean it in more ways than one. Destiny I court thee, I court thee with all my heart, with all my love.

Destiny thou art not destined, I shall conjure thee in my mind, with my heart.

IF - Rudyard Kipling

IF.....
IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to,
broken,And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

- Rudyard Kipling

My all time favourite since school.

Not that I need you

There is something that my heart may feel,
Something, that mind is afraid to reveal,
Is it someone seeing though me, that makes me squeal,
I may be down, but then not that I need you.

Once, I lied for seconds and slept for hours,
Worked to death, aimed for the stars,
Today, the dreams are empty and my soul jars,
Will someone hold me, but then not that I need you.

I see not the pain of the poor; I see not the king’s coronation,
I see not the meaning; I see not the intention,
I see not the way; I see not the destination,
Will someone show the way, but then not that I need you.

I died in her arms, but before, I died in her mind,
She showed me the love, but it was me who was blind,
Never spoke my mind, my tongue was tied,
Today, I know not who to speak to, but then not that I need you.

Have got all the matter, but lost all that mattered,
Stood upright, showed fight, when spirits were battered,
Showed Courage, showed care, yet was left shattered,
Sometimes my heart asks why? Was it “Not that I need you”?

A Life Less Ordinary

They say “good is the enemy of the great”, when u have quotes like that, ordinary seems outright unacceptable. Then what is it that you do, if after a point in time, everything seems ordinary. Any job loses its challenge and sheen, once the learning curve starts to taper down.

But then that is ordinary, and how does one get away from ordinariness of life, and even worse the ordeal of ordinariness, day after day, weeks together, months together, and with the threat of becoming years together.

In spite of the discontent there is some security in inertia. Some security of it shall not get worse. But the truth is it often gets worse, but the pace of worsening is slow that we often don’t realize. Scientists say that if you put a frog in hot water, is jumps out of it, but if u put a frog in water at room temperature, and start heating the water to boiling point, the frog does not jump out but dies in the water. This happens, because the slow pace of adverse change (though life threatening) is more acceptable, than a sudden change. The frog might have still survived in the hot water, but the change was sudden, so it leapt out of it.

I guess this is what the slow monotone of life does to us. A slow death of the spirit. I refuse to be a frog, I refuse to die a slow death of inaction, a death of inertia. I refuse, I refuse. I know, I shall leap out, before it gets too hot.

I can survive anything, but for successive ordinary days

The future beckons…

Probably this is one of the most beautiful words for an ambitious person. The journey to the future is often much more beautiful than destination itself. And the scariest thing in life could be not having a destination to look forward to. It’s not for nothing that they say it’s lonely at the top. But with silos in the world increasing, and the division of work becoming paramount, there are people who are reaching the ‘top’ way too early in life and the loneliness does breed discontent. Once you don’t have anything to look up to, then the only way to look towards is downwards.

It is at this juncture of life, that the one’s true character emerges. The rats in the rat race are differentiated from real men. It is this when, people with real character find challenges which others cant see, milestones that no one has explored before, destinations that don’t exist. It is this where, your loneliness becomes your strength, your completeness of character, your ability to search for meaning in solitude and yet be common with commoners, regal with loyalty noble with nobility that shall set you apart. A chameleon with many colors who shall not rest with being at top of his work, but wants to go beyond to be a complete human being.

But surprisingly, to achieve all this ambition is not the only thing one requires. One needs humility and strength of character. People often ask me that I often talk about strength of character but what does character really mean to me. To me character is ‘ability to resist temptations’. There are temptations of immediate gratification, becoming rewards, love, lust, money, which we all desire and often take short cuts for. But those who have had the courage to rise above these, say no to them when it meant compromising on one’s own values are often rewarded with all this and much more.

I close with one of my favorite lines from a very respected man:

“Teri Zindagi ek aisa safar ho, manzil pe pahunche to manzil hata diya”

Politics of Manipulation, and incompetence of (hardly) “revered” politicians

They say a country deserves the politicians it gets. Not too long ago, I agreed that the problem with the country is because we as people of the country don’t shoulder our responsibility enough, and expect our politicians to do so. We are corrupt and act corruptly in our daily lives, but expect the politicians and governing bodies to be above such frailties. We are a praise hungry nation, we would always go an extra mile to be popular, and hence it is not surprising that our politicians also choose to be populists, even if it is detriment to the country’s interest. Not to forget it serves their vested interest just fine.

But last 3-4 years, I have met people in various spheres of life who are not prone to such frailties and have been doing only too well in their chosen field in spite of that. In fact I am tempted to say because of that. Honesty and strength of character are being rewarded duly in this country in all spheres except our polity and governing agencies.

Another thing, which I have never doubted is the competency and abilities of the people of India, their entrepreneurial spirit, their ability to find ways to get things done, their ingenious thinking, ready made fix up solutions et al. But unfortunately, even if we yield to their populist inclination as political compulsion, yet the lack of imagination and competence in design of policies, regulations has been truly disappointing. Lets take a few contentious political issues with populist overtures:

Subsidies – in various forms are given to various sections of the society, some commodity linked, some income linked, some employment linked and unfortunately all of them are misused and money siphoned in the process, which in effect costs the exchequer much more than what it actually should.

Power is subsidized for agricultural usage (even to the extent of being free) and domestic usage. The free power for agriculture has no relation to the needs of the farmer, and can be drawn for any amount, leading to its misuse in a power deficient country, and also costing the exchequer much more than it should. Further, there are diversions, where power meant for agricultural usage is used up for domestic and also commercial purposes.

Domestic power is often diverted for commercial usage without any real control on them. The linemen can often be bribed to get away with that.

To be honest, it is not difficult to do away with such problem, give away direct subsidy coupons to farmers, equivalent to their estimated power requirement, and let them pay up at the normal rate for the power consumed. This alleviates their problem, and caters to the misuse issue as well. Or no needs for the coupon either, just exempt the amount equivalent to the need from the bill. Yes, this shall involve metering requirement for the government, which is the least we can take care of.

Such misuse of power, has led to many SEBs and state government going under serious financial strain and affecting their credit worthiness, further hampering the investment in the sector in the region, making matters worse for the states. The lackadaisical approach towards containing T&D (Theft & dacoity) losses is another case in point.

Reservations – Reservations for all. For Scheduled Castes, for Scheduled tribes, for Other backward castes for handicapped. And reservations everywhere, government jobs, government aided educational institutions, private educational institutions, seats of higher education and if they have their way even private sector jobs. Meritocracy is dead! Long live meritocracy. Mediocre politicians promoting mediocrity is no surprise. There are ways to take affirmative actions, which is more effective, more pragmatic, promotes meritocracy and surprisingly even more populists. However, not surprisingly our politicians being mediocre people with mediocre intelligence, focused on short term goals (read next assembly election) fail to see the right way of doing things.

Whom do we benefit, with reservations in seats of higher education? I recently heard (though I admit is unconfirmed) that our hon’ble ex-president’s daughter is applying into one of these esteemed institutes in reserved category. I must say that their family deserves this chance after the oppression of becoming the president of the country been thrust upon these poor hapless souls. Well I guess, enough of this has already been said everywhere, but what has not been said is the alternative to reservations as affirmative action and its implementation.

How about tracking the enrolment and drop out rates of various communities, gender and religion at primary school level? How about free education or financial incentives to those who drop out of school because of financial problem? How about actually using the education cess levied on the hon’ble taxpayers of the country to provide better infrastructure and providing cheap credit or even interest free credit to deserving students in this category? How about social awareness schemes and fomentation of mentoring programmes for their children? Trust me all this can be done. But this needs a little more imagination and willingness to put heads and hands together. Not something one expects of our mediocre politicians.

Coming back from where we started, I may admit (I am not saying I do admit) that we may be frail in character, weak in disposition, or on the face of adversity, we may be suckers for popularity and personal gains, but can never believe that we as a nation are incompetent. So if a nation deserves the politicians it gets, we atleast deserves much more competent politicians, if not more honest.

I guess long before quota became a controversy, we have had quotas for idiots in the parliament. Irony, thy name is democracy! (Oops! Am extremely sorry Mr. Shakespeare for the last real bad one).

Life isn’t fair to anyone, that’s what makes life fair

We all have had occasions, where we feel let down by the rigmaroles of life. When we see less deserving people get the better of us or at times when we loose something that is really dear to us. Often, we end up complaining that life hasn’t been fair to us. But then, there are always others who have been deprived off its fairness.

I don’t think I have ever met a person who can say that life has always been fair to him/her. There are people who say, that life has turned out fairly OK for them over a period of time, but fair on all occasions, NONE.

But then I guess it is this impetuosity, with which life doles out its unfairness to everyone is what makes it really fair. It can be partial to some people at some point of time, but over a longer period, u always get what you deserve.

I for one believe that I have got most things in life fairly easily, without being too bothered, without stooping too low and without compromising on my general well being over an extended period of time. But then, at the same time I don’t have everything I could have asked for. I have lost things on the bye-way; I have paid prices which I had not bargained for, for things which I don’t value as much as the price I paid for.

Sometimes, these things do bother me, but then I shrug off, taking solace in Shaharyar’s famous words:

kabhi kisi ko mukammal jahaa nahin milta
kahin zamin to kahin aasmaan nahin milta

jise bhi dekhiye woh apne aap main gum hai
zubaan mili hai magar hamzubaan nahin milta

bujhaa sakaa hai bhalaa kaun vaqt ke sholay
ye aisi aag hai jis main dhuaan nahin milta

tere jahaan main aisaa nahin ki pyaar na ho
jahaan ummeed ho is ki vahaan nahin milta

Ordinary Thinking of Extraordinary Men

There are very few things in the world which are as humbling and at the same time disturbing as sub-ordinary vision from extraordinary people, (what makes them extraordinary is their successes and ability to be there).

One of the most glaring examples is the world’s favorite punching bag Mr. George Bush. When what the world needs is greater energy security, when you know the best way to cut terrorism is suffocating the financial supply to Islamic fundamentalists, by investing in alternative energy sources, we have the “most powerful person on the planet” indulging into ad-hoc cowboy-ism.

I fail to understand what he is after, are we living in an illusion that terrorism would end if Bin Laden is captured? This would be the naiveté at its worst, and I would like to believe that world deserves better leaders. What one needs, is to cut all sources of finance and capital to these terrorist groups. What to me appears obvious is that most recruits are not passionate Jehadis looking to die for a cause, but young men, who see this as the only way to meet their ends meet.

To my mind there are few steps which can help battle the scourge of terrorism, provided our world leaders are listening:

Technological thrust on developing alternative source of energy – With the rise of millions in countries like India and China the energy consumption of the world can only head North, and at a rate which shall be unprecedented to what the world has seen in the past. This shall lead to crude prices hardening, and giving more financial muscle to few of the worst governed rogue states with oil reserves. What it also does, it enables the rest of the world to impose sanctions on these rogue states, without worrying about their own energy security.

Also, this shall help reduce carbon emissions, provide energy security for the world providing cleaner fuel for sustainable development. The damage the increasing number of cars in developing countries like China and India is doing and the way we are making world a less livable place, is something, the coming generations may never forgive us for… though that is a separate discussion altogether

Cutting Financial Supplies – The power of money cannot be overstated. The “industry” of terror, thrives on the money generated by rogue nations through sale of crude and drugs. A closer scrutiny and surveillance on flow of money across the world to these identified nations and outfits to suffocate their financial vessels will go a long way in curbing their effectiveness.

Arms Control – With the technology for making arms so readily available through internet, books, trained personnel, this might be the most difficult thing to contain. But what this also means, is that more and more of these terrorist outfits shall be using internet as a tool to upgrade their weapons, planning their attacks, understanding geographical positions and alternative routes to their targets. And the good news is, that all search on internet leaves a trace behind, a greater surveillance of such searches on the net, shall be a source of vital leads to trace and pre-empt attacks. The intelligence agencies should monitor closely (I would like to believe they are already doing that) such trails on the net.

Inclusion of Islamic states into mainstream – A large chunk of Islamic states have been left out of the development and progress happening in the developed and neo developing world like China and India. The seclusion from participating in the progress, is one of the reasons, they are more prepared to hurt this “world” which they are not a part of. Once they are part of the mainstream, the world we all know of, they shall be reluctant to hurt their own world. This ownership to the world has to be instilled to the Islamic world.

Humiliation – It sometimes, surprises me how often the Islamic fundamentalists use the word “humiliation”. I don’t think poverty begets terrorism, if that would have been the case, Sub-Saharan Africa, left out parts of India and China, other underdeveloped nations would all have been at arms with the developed and developing countries. But fortunately, that is not true. It is the propagation of the “humiliation” syndrome that has put arms in so many hands. A world wide campaign to dismantle this false belief should be taken up. The world leaders should take initiative and use every opportunity to show their respect to Islam as a religion, Muslims as people, and Islamic states as countries.

The criticism of terrorism should be strictly issue based and objective, without delineating the vast Islamic populace from the mainstream.

Education – Modern education of Science, Mathematics and humanities should be made available in Islamic countries and hotbeds of terrorism. This needs to be done with a missionary zeal, providing implementation linked subsidies from the developed nations, collaborating with states to implement that, espousing the benefits of such education through exemplary statesmanship and maybe even pressurizing rogue states economically to make that happen. But as I mentioned before, our dependence on them for energy security has to be eliminated, before we can exert pressure on these countries.

It’s unfortunate, that we are still living in a unipolar world, where the leaders lack imagination, to understand the core world problems like:

Energy security
Terrorism
Carbon emissions

The long term solutions of thee problems are there, but needs perseverance and imaginative solutions.

I hope our eyes shall open soon, lest we shall use up all our energy reserves, and destroy our planet in no time. A crime, our future generations will not and should not forgive us for. For out children sake, the time has come to make sacrifices as human beings, as communities and as nations. It’s time for consumerism and individualism to take a back-seat.

Think, think whether we are a part of the problem, or part of the solution… least we can do is think.

Questions....

After a long sabbatical, here comes another post....

There was a time, I was young… I had dreams, I had targets, I had goals… and like a bullet, searching for its destination, worked towards it. Since then, lot of water has flown under the bridge; today I am at a juncture, where I have grown older, yet more confused. I have achieved most of what I had targeted for myself, say five years ago, yet I am unsure of my priorities.

Is money, career, a prestigious job, self actualization be all and end all of life? Or is there more to life? When was the last time I did a deed which was kind, when was the last time I helped someone? When was the last time I showed kindness towards someone who does not mean anything personally to me? When was the last time I felt the kid inside me burning bright? Is there something inside me which is dying, or is it that it is already dead? The values, the traits, the ability to take risks which I have always treasured, are they being sacrificed for something which is more superfluous or something which is entirely selfish?

I understand life has to have a direction, but then life should also have a meaning. Everything comes for a price, and at some point of time I was willing to pay any price to achieve what I wanted to. But now that I look to be getting there, the questions resurface, was it a fair price, was it something I should have paid. Or have I exchanged good coffee in an ordinary mug for a bad coffee in a good looking mug? What is it that I want, the coffee or the mug?

Questions… there are questions. And there will always be questions, hopefully someday I shall find an answer, and shall be able to say again,”I have got my priorities right.” I can see a certain someone winking at me :)

Jai Mata Di

The trip to Hyderabad was followed by what has now become an annual ritual for me, a visit to Vaishno Devi shrine. Followed so closely by the Hyderabad trip, that I headed straight from the Airport to the railway station to catch the train.

Keeping me Company were the usual suspects, Deepak, Himanshu and Pandey. The rush there was maddening. Locals told us that the rush is unprecedented for the shrine. And there was a queue for everything, from hotels to food to the darshan tickets.

People were stuck for more than 24 hrs, struggling to get the opportunity to get the darshan, the rush had all the makings of a potential stampede, but somehow things worked out well. With Mata’s grace we did not face too much of a problem, had a good darshan and were back. Though one exception this time round. We missed out on our customary visit to ardhkunwari.

I guess that is left for the next time. Until then….

Jai Mata Di!

Hyderabad Times

A very welcome break from the monotonous rigmarole came in form of a break to undergo a training programme on “Project Appraisal and Infrastructure Financing” in the sprawling campus of IDBI owned training institute JNIDB. Must say. It was a beautiful campus with excellent facilities.

The city took me aback with its cleanliness, civic sense the extent of development and infrastructural facilities available there. What was even more impressive was that the common man there was happy with the government machinery for what it has done to the city. They proudly said that the government machinery actually works without “grease” here. That’s not something you here too often in this country.

The training programme had certain excellent speakers representing the top brass of IDBI’s infrastructure financing side. Extremely knowledgeable and passionate about their work. The discourse was extremely enriching, and the members of the group interactive, participative only made it better.

Visit to the Golconda fort with the big gang was quiet a drag. The sound and light show in the voice of Amitabh Bachchan was fairly well done and was made even more interesting by the company I kept.

The campus was so reminiscent of MDI, and made me feel as if I belonged there. I wish we had more time there; I just hate to get back to work. Meeting with professionals doing the same work across industries, gave an entirely different perspective to the entire thing. The outings were fun-filled, though certain loud members of the group did make others uncomfortable and the fun vitiated.

Overall a trip worth remembering!!

India a Manufacturing hub

The story of India’s growth has been as delighting as it has been mesmerizing. Going by conventional economics, there are certain pre-requisites for growth like:

• Purchasing power in citizens
• A good manufacturing base
• A good manufacturing base
• Good ports and airports

If we have a close look at the above, India has none of the above, and yet it is growing consistently with a growth rate which will be enviable for most developing countries. (China humbly excluded). I agree the growth rate could have been even more phenomenal, if it would have been supported by the above mentioned “pre-requisites”. In fact to my mind the way forward is to address these deficiencies.

If we are so deficient in such basic requirements, what are the factors which are driving the country’s growth, and more importantly is this growth sustainable? Let’s take each question one at a time.

Factors driving India’s growth

The factors which have led to this high rate of growth in the country are:

• High percentage of people in working population
• Technology leveling the ground between developed and developing countries leading to large scale labour arbitrage (result BPOs)
• High number of English speaking population willing to cater to the needs of foreign work requirements
• High number of skilled labour

The above factors explain how we have managed to skip a vital chain in a country’s growth pattern, where first primary sector like agriculture and mining develop, then the manufacturing sector and then the service industry. We jumped straight from the primary sector to the service sector, thanks to skilled labour, revolutionary technological changes and woefully inadequate infrastructure and directionless government machinery.

Is the growth sustainable?

Very debatable, but I will say yes, to a large extent because I want to believe that the answer is yes. However, for the country to grow, it is imperative that sooner rather than later the infrastructure and manufacturing sector as to grow. The scope for growth is huge. Providing basic amenities like power, water, food, housing alone can lead to a kind of growth which will be unprecedented. (Yes, it can be unprecedented even by Chinese standards). What is required, is a strong government will, growth oriented policies and above all sound implementation with minimal leakages and misutilization of capital. A public-private partnership for a sustained growth is called for.

Like any other country, within the manufacturing sector, the commodity sector will take the lead, and surplus capital generated therefrom will be employed in other technology and knowledge intensive sectors. The preponderance of growth in the service sector means the service infrastructure for fast growth in manufacturing can be supported without too much of a hiccup.

Other factors which goes in our favor in support of growth in manufacturing are:

• Cheap Labour
• Growth in quality management education leading to pool of managerial skills
• Technological development of developed countries can be adopted, without having to invest too much of our own capital
• A huge proportion of the population in the working age group of 16-59Increasing consumerism

Looking at the possibilities and setup, there is no doubt in my mind that we have the wherewithal to be the next manufacturing led growth story, which will be both inclusive of a larger section of the society and at the same time create a new breed of capitalists. Are you willing to be a part of the party yet?

Investing Gyan

Discipline over temptations

For the last one year I have not put in a penny in stock market, because I felt that I should pay off my education loan before I start investing (no prepayment penalty meant that I could do that). How is that for a person, who believes that he can make returns of 20% CAGR, and the loan is costing him only 7% net of IT benefit. Hence, to my mind it is important to make the best use of this leverage, and pay off both the leverage and invest with a disciplined approach, rather that first loan than investing. With this new found wisdom I made my first investment of Rs. 15,000 in GE Shipping, which I think is ridiculously under priced.

There will always be cheap stocks

For all those who think that the market is overpriced and the bubble is waiting to burst, I somewhat agree with you, but then, no matter the sensex, their will always be bargain stocks in the market for the most discerning investor. The only problem is your effort in such a market is twice that you would need when the market overall is under priced.

Cash flow woes of salaried people

Salaried people like us get money on a monthly basis, and hence unfortunately, the investment decision is required to be made every month. The option of maneuvering the cash flows, which is available to self-employed and business people is often little. However, this also means that you can do with hitting the research desk only once in a month, and not on a sustained basis, when you have money to invest. The mantra for wealth growth is, invest small amounts every month.

Diversification

No matter how small is your resource pool, it still pays to get your portfolio diversified. It gives much greater liquidity, strength and options, when you need to dig from resources. Yes diversification can be an important reason for liquidity when you want to sell. Further, the common known benefit of diversifying the risk is anyways there.

Don’t get too close to the market

One is best of not monitoring the market on a regular or daily basis. The more times you see the price of a particular stock, psychologically you feel that you have been holding it for a much longer period than you actually have. Then the doubts on your research capability, decision making, and choice start to crop up. Your perception and pulse rate start oscillating with the stock movements. These tensions and problems are best left to the punters, let the investors instead make money.

Happy Investing!!!